Weather forecasting is a complex and challenging task, and there are several reasons why a weather app might not always be 100% accurate:
Inherent Complexity: Weather is a highly dynamic and chaotic system. It is influenced by numerous variables, such as temperature, humidity, wind patterns, pressure systems, and more. Predicting how these variables interact and evolve over time is inherently challenging.
Limited Data: Weather models rely on vast amounts of data from weather stations, satellites, and other sources. However, some areas may have limited data availability, leading to less accurate forecasts in those regions.
Rapid Changes: Weather conditions can change rapidly, especially in regions with diverse microclimates. Small changes in atmospheric conditions can lead to significant variations in local weather.
Modeling Errors: Weather models are mathematical representations of the atmosphere. Although they have improved significantly over the years, they are not perfect and can still produce errors.
Uncertainty: Weather forecasting involves dealing with uncertainty. Forecasters use probabilistic models to indicate the likelihood of certain weather conditions, but unexpected events can still occur.
Inaccurate Initial Data: Weather models rely on initial conditions to make predictions. If the initial data is incorrect or imprecise, it can lead to inaccurate forecasts.
Long-Range Forecasts: Predicting the weather beyond a few days becomes increasingly challenging due to the inherent complexity and uncertainties involved.
Despite these challenges, meteorologists and weather agencies continually work to improve forecasting accuracy. They use advanced technology, satellite observations, weather balloons, and computer models to gather more data and refine their predictions. However, it's important to remember that weather forecasts are inherently probabilistic, and a 100% accurate forecast is not currently achievable.
As for the analogy with a blind man rolling dice, it is unlikely to be more accurate than modern weather models. Weather models are based on scientific principles, historical data, and mathematical algorithms, whereas random dice rolling lacks any predictive capability. While weather apps may not always be perfect, they are generally more reliable than random chance. Nevertheless, it's always good to have some awareness of the inherent uncertainty in weather forecasting and to check for updates when planning activities or events.