The phenomenon of looking back and realizing how things made sense in hindsight is often referred to as "hindsight bias" or the "I-knew-it-all-along" effect. It is a cognitive bias where people tend to perceive events as more predictable than they actually were before they occurred. There are a few reasons why this happens:
Narrative Construction: When we look back on events, our brains tend to construct a narrative that connects all the dots and makes sense of the sequence of events. This narrative often overlooks the uncertainties, randomness, and ambiguities that we faced when we were living through those events.
Confirmation Bias: We tend to remember information that confirms our current knowledge and beliefs while ignoring or forgetting information that contradicts them. This can make the past seem more predictable than it was at the time.
Memory Reconstruction: Our memories are not perfect records of the past; they are reconstructed based on our current knowledge and beliefs. As a result, we might unknowingly alter our memories to fit our current understanding.
Learning from Experience: As we gain more experience and knowledge over time, we develop a better understanding of the world and ourselves. This increased understanding allows us to see patterns and connections that we might have missed when we were less experienced or knowledgeable.
So, in essence, when we look back, we have the benefit of new information and experiences that allow us to make more sense of the past. However, this doesn't necessarily mean we can't be "clued in" and make better decisions while living forward.
To improve our ability to reach goals and make better decisions in life, we can consider the following strategies:
Self-awareness: Cultivate self-awareness and introspection. Understanding our values, strengths, weaknesses, and motivations can help us make more informed choices and set realistic goals.
Goal Setting: Set clear, specific, and achievable goals. Break them down into smaller steps and create actionable plans to work towards them.
Adaptability: Embrace uncertainty and change. Life is unpredictable, and being adaptable can help us navigate challenges and make adjustments when needed.
Seeking Advice: Don't be afraid to seek advice and learn from others. Engage in conversations with people who have experience or expertise in areas relevant to your goals.
Learn from Failures: Rather than viewing failures as setbacks, see them as learning opportunities. Analyze what went wrong, understand the lessons, and use that knowledge to improve future decisions.
Mindfulness: Practice mindfulness to stay present and focused. Being aware of the present moment can help us make better decisions and avoid reactive or impulsive choices.
Continuous Learning: Commit to lifelong learning. The more we know, the better equipped we are to face challenges and make informed decisions.
While we might not be able to completely eliminate the hindsight bias, we can strive to make the best possible decisions in the present by being open-minded, adaptable, and continuously learning from our experiences. It's important to acknowledge that life is unpredictable, and while we can plan and work towards our goals, we must also be open to the unexpected and be willing to adjust our course when needed.